Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.588387 3.025792 3.511064 4.088889 4.757737 5.507169 6.410208
2025-12-14 1.849861 2.416414 3.113647 4.032715 5.210257 6.666226 8.601084
2025-12-21 1.418643 2.030963 2.851518 4.026763 5.661650 7.849738 10.994341
2025-12-28 1.230106 1.901250 2.866729 4.347978 6.552959 9.701694 14.524906
2026-01-04 1.033704 1.709634 2.744679 4.431387 7.095094 11.119122 17.632638
2026-01-11 0.884525 1.554644 2.639812 4.505934 7.611740 12.542945 20.922226
2026-01-18 0.757538 1.408100 2.517067 4.520270 8.017393 13.826183 24.139987
2026-01-25 0.648771 1.270689 2.382758 4.485496 8.322365 14.966255 27.249162
2026-02-01 0.529819 1.091679 2.143892 4.223038 8.181443 15.314250 29.019507
2026-02-08 0.448263 0.968634 1.986228 4.081327 8.230782 15.989019 31.437165
2026-02-15 0.392659 0.887253 1.894449 4.049327 8.477116 17.044514 34.676988
2026-02-22 0.364454 0.858168 1.901777 4.214674 9.129898 18.942763 39.755582
2026-03-01 0.319828 0.787202 1.815449 4.181893 9.394832 20.154383 43.716092
2026-03-08 0.280579 0.721606 1.731043 4.142264 9.644863 21.379308 47.892340
2026-03-15 0.249578 0.669723 1.668770 4.142160 9.981256 22.828574 52.736176
2026-03-22 0.242823 0.676865 1.744767 4.474403 11.115691 26.138842 62.049070
2026-03-29 0.222329 0.644473 1.720105 4.560896 11.688833 28.274980 69.002711
2026-04-05 0.203691 0.613388 1.693435 4.637795 12.249040 30.449481 76.315004
2026-04-12 0.184352 0.576495 1.645591 4.652622 12.656930 32.316212 83.131827
2026-04-19 0.165245 0.536417 1.582502 4.616897 12.930167 33.891504 89.437382
2026-04-26 0.139872 0.472208 1.441974 4.347040 12.548640 33.800856 91.590862
2026-05-03 0.122188 0.428186 1.351066 4.201325 12.479887 34.491126 95.818286
2026-05-10 0.110191 0.400030 1.301866 4.168421 12.719645 36.012206 102.405362